NewStats: 3,263,836 , 8,181,572 topics. Date: Sunday, 08 June 2025 at 08:41 AM 4p1w3y

By Temidayo Akinsuyi

A few days ago, I had a conversation with one of the senior leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) who was in London for a medical check-up. During our meeting, I sought his views on the latest developments in the party and who will likely emerge as the presidential candidate in the 2027 general elections. His response: “As you are aware, the PDP governors already said they won’t be part of any coalition but will rebuild the party into a formidable opposition. Well, if they are able to keep the party together and Atiku didn’t the SDP, he is our best bet for now.”

The next question is, does Atiku stand a chance against a master political strategist and sitting president like President Bola Tinubu, who will likely seek reelection for another term? My host replied, “Yes, I think he stands a chance when you consider (President Bola) Tinubu’s abysmal performance and the opposition from the North, especially on issues relating to anti-North policies and (alleged) marginalisation. Don’t forget, Tinubu got the of the majority of the northern governors to win the APC presidential ticket in 2022. They also worked massively for him in the 2023 presidential election.”

He continued, “However, even Tinubu knows that many of the northern governors and lawmakers are unhappy with him over the tax reform bill and other policies and will work against him, even though they may be shouting ‘Sai Tinubu’ in public now. I believe Atiku is in talks with Peter Obi, and he wants a repeat of the t ticket they had in 2019. Obi has a huge followership among the youths, who constitute a greater percentage of the voting populace. If Obi can bring that to the table and Atiku also delivers the North and some southern states, then the deal is done. Tinubu will also want to consolidate his base in the South. So, it is likely going to be a north vs south contest.”

After our meeting, so many thoughts kept ringing in my head, especially the ‘north vs south’ contest which he mentioned. How does that bode for Nigeria’s unity? We are yet to recover from the deep-seated animosity and ethnic rivalries that permeated the entire landscape during the last general elections, and now some people are ready to deepen it further with a north vs south political battle. Just recently, these leaders in their Easter and Sallah messages ened Nigerians to shun division and embrace unity and co-existence. They also called for a renewed sense of national cohesion and empathy while also urging the citizens to rise above divisions and work collectively towards peace and progress in the country. Yet, because of insatiable lust for power, these same people are prepared to throw that unity to the wastebin and are scheming towards an election that will further polarise an already divided country.

Let me begin with Atiku, Nigeria’s vice president from 1999 to 2007 during the Olusegun Obasanjo presidency. Atiku has been contesting presidential elections since 1993, and he is likely to do so again in 2027. Unlike before, when he jetted off to Dubai after elections and resurfaced after four years, Atiku has played the role of an opposition figure very well since the conclusion of the 2023 elections, constantly checkmating every decision taken by the Tinubu istration. However, from a candid point of view, Atiku’s desire to become Nigeria’s president is driven more by desperation than patriotism. He mouths the need for unity in the country on festive occasions, but in his heart, he is ready to jettison that unity for his selfish ambition.

The last presidential election reinforced my belief that Atiku is not a nationalist as he claims. There is an unwritten agreement that power should rotate between the north and south in the spirit of fairness, equity and justice. After a northerner, Muhammadu Buhari, was about to complete two of eight years, Atiku, who is from the northern state of Adamawa, threw his hat in the ring. If Atiku had won the election and served two , it would mean the north would have been in power for 16 consecutive years. How will that engender unity in a heavily polarised country? Will Atiku, in his heart of hearts, allow another southerner to become president after another southerner has completed eight years? Despite winning the presidential ticket of the PDP, Atiku’s party was heavily polarised, and he lost the main election. Just like he did with the Biblical Pharaoh, God ‘hardened’ the heart of Atiku, and he refused all the entreaties of party stakeholders, especially the G-5 governors led by Nyesom Wike. The rest, as they say, is history.

Atiku, who will be 80 years old in 2027, lost two golden opportunities to become Nigeria’s president. The first was in 2003 when the majority of the governors of the then ruling party, PDP, agreed to back him in the party’s presidential primary against his principal, Olusegun Obasanjo. The old, wily Obasanjo knew he had to stoop in order to conquer, and he did just that – he knelt down before Atiku and begged him to allow him to run for a second term.


Giving a vivid picture of what transpired then, Nobel laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka, as published by TheCable in the August 3, 2018 edition, said: “Before the PDP primaries in January 2003, Obasanjo got everyone he knew could reach me on the surface of the earth, including Yemi Ogunbiyi and my son, to get me to help him intercede when it was clear that (Abubakar) Atiku was in a position to take his job. He knew Atiku had a lot of regard for me and called me ‘Uncle’.

“The pressure was intense. Of course, I could not have knelt before Atiku, not to embark on a course of action that would lead to his boss’ disgrace. But I can confirm to you that Obasanjo, as president, knelt down before Atiku so that he would not lose his job. But I warned Atiku that for making Obasanjo kneel down for you, be sure you would have to pay heavily for that. I guess my warning came to if you Atiku’s dramatic change of fortune once Obasanjo was sworn in for a second term of office.”

The second golden opportunity missed by Atiku was in the last presidential election when Atiku refused entreaties by major stakeholders in the PDP to respect the zoning formula in the party, which states that the presidential candidate and national chairman cannot come from the same region. Atiku is from the North-East (Adamawa), while the then national chairman of the party, Iyorchia Ayu, is from the north-central (Benue). The director-general of the presidential campaign, Aminu Tambuwal, is also from the north-west (Sokoto). In the interest of unity, the stakeholders want Ayu to resign so that another chairman from the southern part of the country can step in, but Atiku disagreed.

Also, the PDP stakeholders pleaded with Atiku to field Wike as his running mate. After a series of meetings both locally and abroad, Atiku breached the agreement and settled for Ifeanyi Okowa, the immediate past governor of Delta State. Now, Okowa has dumped Atiku and the PDP and has gone to pitch his tent with President Tinubu’s APC.

Speaking on Channels Television recently, Governor Seyi Makinde said the PDP also made a grave mistake by handing the presidential ticket, national chairman slot, and office of the director general of the presidential campaign to from the northern region only. He said the exclusion of southerners from the three major slots dealt a self-inflicted blow to the PDP, which culminated in the loss suffered by the party in the poll.

How can you breach the rotation agreement between the north and south as well as the zoning formula within your party, and then convince Nigerians that you have the capability to unite the country? That is food for thought for Alhaji Atiku.

As for President Tinubu, he granted an interview in the ThisDay publication of April 13th, 1997, where he declared that ‘I don’t believe in One Nigeria’. The interview resurfaced online during the build-up to the 2023 presidential election, but his loyalists claimed that he was quoted out of context, especially when you consider the fact that as governor of Lagos State, he ran a pan-Nigerian cabinet which included many non-Yoruba-speaking people.

However, since becoming president, questions have been raised about his appointments, which some Nigerians believe are heavily skewed in favour of the south-west. To counter this, his media aides released the list of ‘all’ the appointments made by the president, but also quickly withdrew it after many loopholes were discovered. Sunday Dare promised to provide an updated list very soon, but he has yet to do so three weeks later.

Having lost Lagos, Osun, Enugu, Akwa-Ibom, Edo, Abia, Plateau, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Anambra and Imo in the 2023 presidential election, President Tinubu cannot afford to take chances again if he desires to seek re-election in 2027. It is glaring that many of the northern stakeholders who worked for him in the 2023 presidential election will not do so again. This singular reason explains the recent actions taken by the president in Lagos during the Obasa impeachment imbroglio. Tinubu weighed the political value of Obasa on one hand and Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu and the 36 lawmakers on the other. His verdict? Obasa, one of his die-hard loyalists, has more political value than Sanwo-Olu and the lawmakers. He therefore did everything possible to restore Obasa to his position.

The president also did the same in Rivers during the battle between the former governor of the state, Nyesom Wike, who is now the minister of the FCT, and the current governor, Siminalayi Fubara. Many analysts believe that Tinubu sided with Wike, especially given the fact that only Fubara was suspended for six months while Wike remained in office. Last week, it was reported that Fubara met with the president in London, and they allegedly had an agreement that Fubara’s sins would be forgiven if he s the APC. Now, Delta state is already in the kitty with the defection of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his predecessor, Okowa. We are also told to expect more defections into the APC in the days ahead.

If things continue this way, then, as rightly predicted, the 2027 presidential election will be a serious battle between the north and south, a complete departure from the June 12, 1993 presidential election, which to date remains the freest, fairest and most credible election in Nigeria’s history. Is that the future our leaders desire for our beloved country and generations unborn?

Akinsuyi, former group politics editor of Daily Independent, currently studies sustainability communications strategies at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

https://www.thecable.ng/2027-presidency-a-north-vs-south-contest/

Please count we Igbos out of that North vs south contest please

It should be North vs southwest contest

Nothing like north versus south contest bu Tinubu and Nigerians

Atiku's greed is his problem, Tinubu wouldn't have won 2023 election if Atiku had compromised a little

With both Delta and Rivers going to APC, it's obvious the SS is conquered, especially Rivers state cos whoever protected Fubara from Wike will win Rivers state, even if that person is Vladimir Putin.

BAT 2027-2031 you can argue that with your keyboard ⌨️🎹⌨️.

This north Vs south thing has done more harm than good.

.

It's a futile effort and waste of money contesting to unseat BAT.. Atiku and Peter Obi will still remain underdogs even if they form alliance

Only death will take that man out of Aso Rock until 2031

Funny people 😁 it's north vs south-west please

ok

I can't relate and I don't want to.

North no de shame!

christejames:
Nothing like north versus south contest bu Tinubu and Nigerians

So the people that will vote Tinubu are malawians abi?
It's still north vs south, but I doubt everyone in south will Tinubu, especially SE

Igirigimercenar:
Please count we Igbos out of that North vs south contest please

It should be North vs southwest contest

Send the message to Mr Peter Obi not Nairaland.

Story.


Buhari made Tinubu President through his indifferent and Idoncare attitude which made Tinubu to hijack INEC for the rigging nonsense they did by switching off the iREV portal and polling unit result .


Rigging in Presidential election have limit if the people don't want you.


If he likes let him use EFCC to intimidate all the corrupt Governors to decamp to APC, that will never stop him from being defeated in 2027.


The only thing that will make Tinubu win easily is if the so called coalition of opposition fail or if they end up presenting Atiku Abubakar as their consensus Presidential candidate for 2027.



But if the North are serious to stop Bola Tinubu from winning a reelection in 2027, they should swallow their pride and make a sacrifice by announcing Peter Obi as their preferred consensus Presidential candidate for 2027 election. Once the North do this, it is finished for Tinubu and he knows this. They can have a solid agreement with Obi to do only single tenure.


Only a Peter Obi candidacy backed by Northern Nigerians can defeat Tinubu in 2027 irrespective of rigging. Anything less will be a walk over for Tinubu.

plessis:

Let us not make the mistake of fielding Peter obi in 2027. The north will not obi because it could be a total of 12 years for the south if he wins. Tinubu would simply strike a deal with kwankwaso and its over. Obi has to deputise atiku and we pool our votes together. That way rigging is almost impossible. Obi contesting would simply split the votes again.

This is another great option but the problem is the Obidient movement which is a collection of young Nigerians from all tribe and even religion might not be happy if Peter Obi deputize Atiku, they will lose majority of Obidient people /vote.


But if Obi can convince Obidients and young Igbos, and Atiku is able to rally his Northern brothers to queue behind him, then they will also defeat Tinubu with all his rigging plans

its Tinubu vs his business partners. Nothing consign south for this matter.

richmond500:
So the people that will vote Tinubu are malawians abi?
It's still north vs south, but I doubt everyone in south will Tinubu, especially SE

So if you are having a research discuss in Harvard and you are asked to describe Tinubu's ers you will call them Nigerians?





Aliens!

NOOoooo!! it's a lie 🤥 they have started spinning narratives and trying to plant it subtly in the minds of the populace.

I repeat, IT'S A LIE APC your propaganda will never fly this time

The 2027 elections will be the MASSES versus CORRUPT SYSTEM all these politicians have made a foundation of Nigerian democracy

Tinubu will still win, only God can stop him.

PDP should bring a good team that will win the hearts of Nigerians.... If they make mistake to pair Obi with ANYONE, forget PDP till after Timubu's 8 yrs and definitely Tinubu would have retired Atiku ultimately.

Some sections in Nigeria are still angry that after ing Obi, his desperate foot soldiers who want their online nation by force by fire, are despising them and insulting them including their Kings.

Tired of Nigeria

.

Ahh is Obingo nothing to you?

I don't like Atiku

The North are projecting Obi so that after Obi's first tenure, the North will now say it's there turn since Tinubu from the south has already ruled for four years. For me oo, Obi should really round Tinubu so that after Tinubu's eight years and either years for the North, power will return back to South then he can contest. Just my take.

Q

These people don't care about Nigeria's unity at all.

The writer is committing some blunders, there's nothing like North versus South. If core Northern Muslims against Tinubu in 2027.

Many Northern Christian voters will consider Tinubu as their best choice. the North Central is another joker for the President. He'll still get some percentage of votes from core North.

No election can go in direction of North vs South in Nigeria presidential election.

what is this one saying?

SeeWahala:
NOOoooo!! it's a lie 🤥 they have started spinning narratives and trying to plant it subtly in the minds of the populace.

I repeat, IT'S A LIE APC your propaganda will never fly this time

The 2027 elections will be the MASSES versus CORRUPT SYSTEM all these politicians have made a foundation of Nigerian democracy

We they talk about Nigeria elections you dey count south east, both Atiku and ovi are wasting their time and stolen money.